29. I take a look at head-to-head results, schedule strength, games against ranked teams and more to help rank the teams how I think the CFP committee will do so. To eliminating the inconsistency of the CFP Committee, we need a better, more objective way to choose the top 4 teams in College Football or an expanded playoff with more than 4 teams. 81. Ohio State: 86-69, (55.5%) 6 in the CFP rankings this past Tuesday, it seemed even more unlikely Alabama (10-2) could sneak into the four-team field. By including only the top four teams in the entire FBS (just 3% of 130 teams), several deserving and skilled teams are left out annually. 70. 92. Background. ET on Saturday, Dec 3. For example, I have created my own strength of record metric using my own college football model. 5:45, ESPN. Clemson is up to No. Bill Hancock formed The CFP, Administaration, LLC with himself as Executive Director & a COO. TCU Should be in Regardless. Some of my personal suggestions for an expanded playoff are that there should be first-round byes (similar to the NFL) and true home games for the higher seed in order to incentivize winning deep into the season. Louisville's Ben Sowders is expected to be hired for the role, according to a report from the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette. 91. The Crimson Tide is No. Meanwhile, Michigan State is rewarded for a very difficult game at Ohio State and challenges against Michigan (home) and Purdue (road), and Iowa was rewarded for winning 2 of 3 road games against Wisconsin, Nebraska, and Iowa State. The following has been assumed: 96. Comparing the twos schedules its clear that TCUs resume is better than Ohio States even if they lose to a good Kansas State team Saturday. Texas State: 75-77, (49.3%) Change), You are commenting using your Twitter account. Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. 49. In COLLEGE FOOTBALL the W-L records include ALL games, but ONLY games between the 261 TEAMS RATED here are used for RATING and SCHEDULE STRENGTH computations. 14 Tulane on Jan. 2 at 1 p.m. 3. Composite College Football Power Rankings. Third, computer generated SOS are also problematic. 22. Power Rankings Guru 2015-2019. ET on Saturday, Dec. 3, 2022, on CBS. TCU's strength of record (3) is above Clemson (4). 33. NC State: 74-75, (49.7%) Tulsa: 81-70, (53.6%) The four teams competing in the Playoff were selected by the CFP selection committee, whose final rankings were released on December 4, 2022, at 12:00 p.m. EST. The Tigers have remaining games at home vs. Arkansas, Texas A&M, and WKU and on the road at No. Now ,the CFPA, LLC select Committee can use all of the above human programmed algorithmic Systems, tailored to fit the Trust Five Conferences with human Face Filters on the committee Members. Every NCAA conference/school ranked by how much their former players make in the NFL, North Carolina State vs Other Conferences. document.getElementById( "ak_js_1" ).setAttribute( "value", ( new Date() ).getTime() ); Enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email. This ranking system should rank teams based on their strength of record, using a composite of several predictive measures to determine the strength of opponents and expected win probability for an average top 25 team. ET on Saturday, Dec 3. Additionally, the playoff field should be expanded from 4 teams to 12 or 14 teams to increase entertainment levels and give all teams a chance. Navy: 100-52, (65.8%) Compared to the current CFP Rankings (week 14), the top 4 teams are the same and are also in the same order. 56. 2022 College Football Strength of Schedule | Win/Loss Method. Or will a team like Alabama knock the Horned Frogs out of the playoff field? Among the teams Vandy has played are Alabama and Georgia on the road and Wake Forest and Ole Miss at home. The Horned Frogs only have one loss and there are only four teams with one or fewer losses remaining in the FBS. Take the Big Ten, for example. MSU: BSU; While ranked first here, Alabamas 2022 schedule is currently ranked 18th Buffalo: 75-78, (49.0%) 108. Auburn tops the strength of schedule rankings in the Colley Matrix. A pair of 7-5 teams square off with SMU getting the 52.5 percent advantage, ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten | Pac 12 | SEC, By season Other tough schedules played include Alabama, Arkansas, Texas Tech, and Vanderbilt. Rk Team Rec FBS FEI OFEI Rk DFEI Rk NDE Rk ELS Rk GLS Rk ALS Rk 1 Georgia 13-0 12-0 1.51 1.73 4 1.46 1 2.46 1 1.48 19 4.58 9 8.48 6 2 Southern Miss: 72-76, (48.6%) 5. 74. Iowa: 92-64, (59.0%) Outside of the top 4, however, my strength of record has Ole Miss, Michigan State, and Iowa ranked higher than the CFP Committees rankings, while Baylor, Ohio State, and Pittsburgh are ranked lower. There are various methods to measure college football strength of schedule, and the win/loss method is commonly used. In 2020, Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, and Notre Dame were selected to the College Football Playoff. 51. Tippman uses aggression, technique, and brute strength to overmatch defenders in both facets equally. The Crimson Tide sit two spots outside of the playoff field but behind No. Purdue 70-79, (47.0%) There are various methods to measure college football strength of schedule, and the win/loss method is commonly used. Auburn: 101-55, Fresno State: 64-85, (43.0%) 23. Kansas: 91-63, (59.1%) Oregon: 83-70, (54.2%) The Auburn Tigers, currently 3-4 overall and 1-3 in the SEC, topped Phil Steeles preseason list. 19 Kentucky (0-0) 38 Fresno State (0-0) The strength of an opponent is determined by their ranking in our Composite College Football Power Rankings. The rankings for my model preceding the Conference Championship games are shown below. 60. 6 in strength of schedule. 114. Bowling Green: 76-75, (50.3%) 8 USC covers as a 1.5-point favorite in the 2022 Cotton Bowl Classic against No. Liberty: 64-86, (42.7%) 1 Georgia, No. Thus, for good teams these schedules are vastly different! How far back do we have to go to find five different Big Ten, Big 12, ACC, or Pac 12 champions? The sixth and final CFP top 25 reveals happens on Sunday, Dec. 4 on ESPN (here's the full schedule). UTEP: 66-83, (44.3%) James Madison: 70-69, (50.4%) 11. UAB: 75-75, (50.0%) 9. Kentucky: 84-71, (54.2%) 2. Complete list of inter-conference football games for the 2022 college football season. USC: 78-73, (51.7%) 2022 NCAA | Turner Sports Interactive, Inc. Navy: 100-52, (65.8%) 2. Instead of having a committee choose teams for the College Football Playoff, there should be a concrete 2022 FCS College Football - Best Strength of Schedule This Season a ranking of every Division I Team Records - Best Strength of Schedule 2022 FCS College Football | WarrenNolan.com 59. 87. On the surface this seems ok but upon deeper inspection it too is highly flawed. 40. 20. It beat Arkansas and Mississippi State when they were ranked. 77 Memphis (0-0) 93 Texas-El Paso (0-0) 101. 95. 6 in strength of record and No. 81. 98. Mississippi State: 98-58, (62.8%) 45. The 2022-23 bowl schedule begins in one week on Friday, December 16, 2022. 64. 126. Iowa State: 85-68, (55.6%) Texas A&M: 93-63, (59.6%) Washington State: 68-82, (45.3%) Another one of the bowl season college football picks from the model: No. UNDEFEATED TRACKER:FBS teams with perfect seasons so far. 6 Alabama. Alabama was ranked sixth in last week's CFP rankings. Oklahoma: 81-74, (52.3%) Nothing has changed from last week to this week with the fifth and sixth-ranked teams but anything could happen come selections. 75. An extended playoff would have numerous benefits. The Auburn Tigers have the toughest schedule in 2022, while the FIU Panthers have the easiest, per Steele. This point out that the strength of a teams schedule is at the TOP of the schedule and not at the bottom! Required fields are marked *. 104. TCU Should be in Regardless. Hancock Whitney Stadium, Mobile, AL. 120. setting a USC record Stan Becton joined NCAA.com in 2021 and has since served as an FCS, track and field, cross country and HBCU beat reporter. 81. Most use an imaginary average team to play each of the 130 actual schedules. Michigan State: 81-72, (52.9%) document.getElementById( "ak_js_1" ).setAttribute( "value", ( new Date() ).getTime() ); I apologize for the length but I have several comments. The top 25 of the SAFER rankings for 2020 are shown below. Arkansas State: 74-75, (49.7%) The Greg Peterson Experience: In NBA and college hoops, place more value on teams that emphasize low post defense.It Below are the matchups in a potential 14 team college football playoff. Florida Atlantic: 78-75, (51.0%) College football strength of schedule rankings for 2022 season. 122. Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, and Michigan State are all in the East division, while the West division contains Wisconsin and Iowa. Ole Miss is ranked in the top 5 despite 2 losses because they played Alabama, Tennessee, Mississippi State, and Auburn (each of which is in the top 22 of NCAA SAFER) all on the road. The views on this page do not necessarily reflect the views of the NCAA or its member institutions. The strength of record for 2020 correctly predicted the four teams in the CFP, although the order was incorrect. Georgia, Michigan, TCU, and Ohio State made the 2022 College Football Playoff. NR East Tennessee State NR Tennessee-Martin. The winners of the College Football Playoff (CFP) semifinalsthe Peach Bowl and the Fiesta Bowlwill contest the 2023 College Football Playoff National Championship. What teams does Vegas under and over value? Georgia: 75-79, (48.7%) In COLLEGE FOOTBALL the W-L records include ALL games, but ONLY games between the 261 TEAMS RATED here are used for RATING and SCHEDULE STRENGTH computations. 3. Florida State: 89-61, (59.3%) Jeff Sagarins index has the Stanford Cardinals with the toughest schedule in the country. College Football Playoff Top 25 Auburn is followed by Colorado and FCS Group 12. For questions or updates to theDivision I Football Records, please email Jeff Williams (jswilliams@ncaa.org). The Big 12 is second with two teams, followed by the ACC, American, Big Ten, and Mountain West with one each. 107. TCU: 83-69, (54.6%) Conversely, the odds of team #11 beating team #1 might 40% less than team #11 beating team #21. Strength of schedule in TCU's favor in CFP rankings. They also rank Florida State, BYU, and UConns schedule in the Top 10, whereas those three schools do not appear in the Top 10 of any other computer ranking. 79. The committee should be eliminated and replaced by a mathematical ranking system. Colorado: 81-71, (53.3%) 19. The 50. 6 in strength of schedule. 6 in strength of record and No. Cincinnati: 71-78, (47.7%) Ranking college football's easiest and hardest schedules in 2022. West Virginia: 90-64, (58.4%) 118 Bowling Green (0-0) 121 New Mexico (0-0) College Football News College football transfer portal tracker for 2023: Updates The transfer portal is open, with several good players among those looking for new schools. BYU: 93-60, (60.8%) Only Bowl Games, By conference 32. 114. Baylor is ranked low because they had 8 games which the average top 25 team would have an 80%+ chance to win (partially due to my model underrating Oklahoma) and Pittsburgh is low since their only challenge in the ACC was a home game vs Clemson (they avoided playing NC State, Wake Forest, and Louisville). 108. Louisville's Ben Sowders is expected Sitting at No. (LogOut/ 97. Your email address will not be published. Vanderbilt: 105-55, (65.6%) 3. 39. Tulane: 82-68, (54.7%) (LogOut/ Following LSU on this strength of record rankings from ESPN are two programs from the Big Ten: Penn State and Ohio State. Notre Dame: 73-76, (49.0%) Memphis: 70-79, (47.0%) 27:02. Arkansas fired coach Jamil Walker on Nov. 26 after three seasons with the Razorbacks. 108. 71. Note that these are my predictions and mine alone. There have been two instances of an undefeated Group of 5 team missing the College Football Playoff, with UCF in 2017 and Cincinnati in 2020 both left out of the top four after going 13-0. Change), You are commenting using your Facebook account. Penn State: 87-67, (56.5%) Required fields are marked *. Ranking by strength of record is not only limited to ESPNs FPI model, but rather can be utilized with any predictive college football model. 119. NCAA College Football Strength of Schedule Rankings & Ratings from TeamRankings.com, your source for NCAAF computer power rankings. Click the title to view the complete rankings for each source. Corrigan said no effort was Another one of the bowl season college football picks from the model: No. This would rank them between West Virginia and Rice or the new #26 toughest SOS! 71. Pitt: 70-79, (47.0%) Kansas State: 82-71, (53.6%) Most metrics have TCUs strength of schedule as the strongest of all four playoff teams. Mississippi State, Georgia Tech, Vanderbilt, and Tennessee round out the top five. You can follow him on Twitter @stan_becton. View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers. Okay, so Rice is here because it went to class it was on top of the APR rankings so it was able to go bowling at 5-7. 60. Auburn, which is first in the Colley Matrix, comes in at third behind Arkansas. 120. Note that these rankings are for strength of schedule to date and will differ from preseason rankings. Temple: 72-78, (48.0%) 122. Auburn: 101-55, (64.7%) UCLA: 63-85, (42.6%) 77. Clemson: 79-69, (53.4%) Virginia Tech: 72-77, (48.3%) Louisiana Tech: 79-72, (52.3%) Thus, for team #11 there is less than 1% difference between those three opponents. 7 Ole Miss. 85. 106. Therefore, the CFP needs to expand, preferably to 12 or 14 teams, to give all teams a chance regardless of whether they are a member of a Power 5 conference or not. Stanford: 89-63, (58.6%) 37. Colorado State: 92-62, (59.7%) Tennessee: 93-66, (58.5%) Last Year: Liberty 56, Eastern Michigan 20. Texas: 99-59, (62.7%) UMass: 58-89, (39.5%), Your email address will not be published. 16 Arkansas (0-0) 36 Utah State (0-0) My model has several issues, like overrating some group of five teams, such as Appalachian State and Air Force, and underrating some good teams from this year, like Oklahoma and Cincinnati (both of which are highly ranked in almost every predictive model). Houston: 64-84, (43.2%) UNLV: 88-65, (57.5%) 51 Louisiana St (0-0) 79 Wyoming (0-0) 2022 College Football Strength of Schedule | Win/Loss Method. The use of software that blocks ads hinders our ability to serve you the content you came here to enjoy. Furthermore, the seemingly inconsistent approach of the CFP Committee has left college football fans confused. This means that we obviously shouldnt use win-loss record alone, but reward more for beating good teams and punish more for losing to bad teams. 24 Mississippi State and No. Background. 58. Im surprised that Florida and Missouri arent on there, but I imagine theyre close. Computers programmed by Humans mythically producing objective, balanced, fair Rankings for Team 1 VS 2. 101. Charlotte: 73-78, (48.3%) The strength of record from these rankings are displayed below. 31. The BCS was morphed into the 4 Team College Football Invitational, Administration LLC mythical Playoff. No. 1 Georgia (0-0) 26 San Diego State (0-0) 125. 130. Against schedule B team #11 would be 6-0 against teams #125-130 but would be lucky to win 1 games vs teams #1-6 or 2 games max. To get a stronger feel for the 2022 FCS football season, list below provides the combined win percentage of each schools Division I opponents (opponents from D-II and 94. 2022 NCAA Football Records. FBSchedules - College and Pro Football Schedules. No. These are the biggest stadiums in college football, Here are the final top 25 College Football Playoff rankings, Recapping conference championship weekend, College Football Playoff rankings release schedule, Michigan thinking big thoughts, Ohio State wondering about CFP hopes after The Game blowout, The schools the most CFP rankings without making the playoff, CFP likelihood of a Week 6 undefeated team, Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information. 64. College Football Playoff Top 25 rankings. document.getElementById( "ak_js_1" ).setAttribute( "value", ( new Date() ).getTime() ); The SOS was created & is maintained by the Trust Six Conferences to legitimize Their Trust Control of their mythical B owl C hampionship S eries Championship. topdan Menu Statistics NCAAF Interconference; NCAAF Vegas Bias; NFL Saleries by College; Play; NCAAF Interconference Records. ESPNs Strength of Record metric reflects chance that an average Top 25 team would have teams record or better, given the schedule. This metric analyzes a teams resume, uses only their schedule, wins and losses, and opponent strength. 35. It seems like after one or two losses, a team is eliminated from a chance at winning a championship, so their games dont seem to matter as much. Your email address will not be published. topdan Menu Statistics NCAAF Interconference; NCAAF Vegas Bias; NFL Saleries by 47. 4 overall despite the one loss to Michigan. 5. Wisconsin: 81-70, (53.6%) Ohio State strength of record Likewise, Ohio State has a significant strength of record, coming in at No. Rutgers: 81-71, (53.3%) Air Force: 76-75, (50.3%) (LogOut/ CFB Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen.GO HERE. Looking at each of the rankings, Auburn has played the toughest schedule in the eyes of the computer indexes, which matches up with the preseason prediction by Phil Steele. Georgia Southern: 92-63, (59.4%) Additionally, I would suggest that there are no automatic qualifiers. CFP:College Football Playoff rankings release schedule. Connecticut: 82-69, (54.3%) While ranked first here, Alabamas 2022 schedule is currently ranked 18th by Jeff Sagarin. Their strength of schedule in 2022 is 1st nationally. Hancock Whitney Stadium, Mobile, AL. Ohio State is ranked No. The Buckeyes did not play for their conference championship game, but only have one loss this season. And with Texas and Oklahoma coming soon, that wont change, FBSchedules - College and Pro Football Schedules. 1 in the College Football Playoff rankings, while Georgia is No. Overrated? South Alabama: 66-81, (44.9%) FAYETTEVILLE It took just over a week, but Arkansas football has reportedly found its new strength and conditioning coach. All-Time Troy: 83-68, (55.0%) Akron: 81-72, (52.9%) Virginia 75-75, (50.0%) The Crimson Tide is No. Predicting NBA First-Time All-Stars in2022-23, Foul up 3 or Defend? South Carolina: 92-62, (59.7%) Second, using this W/L method a team that played 12 opponents that all had 7-5 records (1 game over 0.500) would end-up with a combined record of 84-60 (58.3%). Marshall: 93-59, (61.2%) My model had each team in the top 7. 66. Phil Steele has published his 2022 college football strength of schedule rankings. but it was still a rebirth for a college football blue blood that has had only short spurts of success over the last decade. 112. 30. 99) Jadon Canady, CB, Tulane Armstrong is the single-season record holder in a bevy of statistics in UVAs history, most notably total offense (4,700 yards). I used ESPNs strength of record to create the rankings, but changed the order a little to avoid regular season rematches in the first round. 116. 5:45, ESPN. 42. 60. Here's the full list from ESPN, which was released on College GameDay . 1 Georgia, and No. Nevada: 81-71, (53.3%) Coastal Carolina, San Jose State, and Cincinnati all went undefeated before bowl season, but none were even considered for the top four, even though they won all possible games. Sitting at No. My reasoning for this is that conference champions should automatically qualify unless divisions within conferences are expunged. Additionally, he covered the 2021 Celebration Bowl. Vanderbilt: 105-55, (65.6%) 10. 6 in the CFP rankings this past Tuesday, it seemed even more unlikely Alabama (10-2) could sneak into the four-team field. Instead of having a committee choose teams for the College Football Playoff, there should be a concrete procedure for selecting the teams. 2, while Clemson is fourth, Michigan fifth and TCU seventh. Texas Tech: 95-58, (62.1%) 28. 56. A low opponent average ranking (opp avg) indicates a difficult schedule, whereas a high opponent average ranking suggests an easier schedule. College Football HQ pick: Louisville 23, Cincinnati 20 New Mexico Bowl: SMU (-1.5) vs. BYU pick. College football strength of schedule: 2022 mid-season rankings. Sun 11 Dec 2022 09.42 EST. 4; Kansas State, Utah surge in final top 25 Jerry Palm takes a crack at how the final CFP Rankings of the 2022 powerrankingsguru.com/college-football/strength-of-schedule.php ET on Saturday, Dec 3. Complete list of inter-conference football games for the 2022 college football season. Minnesota: 70-80, (46.7%) Second, the playoffs would have more excitement since more teams are included, and fans can see more standout players (like Oklahomas QB Caleb Williams, Ohio States QB CJ Stroud, Ole Misss QB Matt Corral, and Michigan States RB Kenneth Walker) playing meaningful games. but it was still a rebirth for a college football blue blood that has had only short spurts of success over the last decade. UTSA: 74-77, (49.0%) The schedule that produces the lowest probability of winning is deemed the best SOS. Army: 82-69, (54.3%) Before the final rankings are unveiled by the CFP committee, I predict where the top 25 teams land. California: 69-80, (46.3%) 89. However, lets consider team #11 playing the two schedules. The 2022 Georgia football schedule, including game times, scores, opponents, TV channels and locations. The first 2022 College Football Playoff Ranking has been revealed with Tennessee first and Michigan outside the top four. Ohio State was punished by the committee for playing far fewer games than ACC, SEC, and Big 12 teams, but they were not punished in strength of record. Utah: 71-80, (4700%) 37. 53. Coastal Carolina 76-75, (50.3%) Wake Forest: 75-73, (50.7%) Post-Bowl Ranking: 2021: 34, 2020: 23, 2019: 28. Stan graduated from Carnegie Mellon University, earning a degree in Professional Writing and playing football as a five-year letterman. Western Michigan: 82-71, (53.6%) The College Football Playoff committees initial snapshot of the CFP picture is in. Our Strength of Schedule Played shows the current average ranking for each opponent that a given team has faced to date. To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL 3 points for the home team. 129. For comparison purposes, we will use Phil Steeles preseason strength of schedule rankings. Boston College: 78-72, (52.0%) The fact is no other conference has ever dominated the sport the way the SEC has done recently. 81. Just earlier this year, the Committee had Oregon one spot ahead of Ohio State, citing the head to head victory as their reasoning despite several advanced metrics suggesting Ohio State was the better team, but they also had Michigan ahead of Michigan State despite a head to head loss. Here's the quick guide to the 2022 SEC Championship Game, which features LSU and Georgia at 4 p.m. These strength of record ranking show a glaring issue with the College Football Playoff: its size. There are currently 130 FBS teams and therefore the average team is #65.5. Ohio: 72-80, (47.4%) 128. The Tigers are third in Sagarin, fifth in Massey, seventh in Billingsley, and second in the ESPN FPI (see below). Joga Bonito. SECupcakes always over rated as too how good they are UPDATE: Here are the final top 25 College Football Playoff rankings. Central Michigan: 72-80, (47.4%) Louisville: 96-57, (62.7%) View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers. 4. For questions or updates to the | 108. 90. FAYETTEVILLE It took just over a week, but Arkansas football has reportedly found its new strength and conditioning coach. For questions or updates to the Division I Football Records, please email Jeff Williams ( jswilliams@ncaa.org ). How many straight years has the NFL taken more SEC players than any other conference? He has eight years of experience as a digital producer, previously working for FOX TV Stations (2020-2022), Gray TV (2018-2020) and WBRC (2014-2017). College Football Playoff rankings predictions: The final top 25 projections These predictions are as of 9:00 p.m. The BCS was discredited by these surviving Five Trust Conferences when they moved to an objective, balanced & fair Committee of Humans in 2013, hand picked by the BCS, LLCs Company President Bill Hancock. Oregon State: 84-70, (54.5%) There are several sources for strength of schedule, most of them computer components that were formerly part of the Bowl Championship Series (BCS) rankings. Illinois: 87-65, (57.2%) San Jose State: 80-73, (52.3%) Currently ranked teams that Auburn has already played include No. College football strength of schedule: 2022 Win/Loss method. This would not decrease the importance of the regular season, but rather increase it since more teams have more meaningful games and there is an incentive to win in order to achieve home playoff games and a bye. 93. We are hours away from the final College Football Playoff rankings. The win/loss method is exactly as it sounds its based on wins and losses. 75. Boise State: 98-58, (62.8%) 3 TCU, No. Listed below are the complete strength of schedule rankings with win/loss record and winning percentage of each teams 2022 opponents (includes all games played; numbers compiled by Phil Steele). In addition, there would be more top-tier matchups between top 15 teams during the playoffs. 47. Thus, in both cases the average team would be expected to end-up 6-6 so the schedules would be rated as equals. Will USC be penalized for playing and losing in their conference championship game, allowing Ohio State to rise above them? In addition this method lists Mississippi State and Boise State as having equally tough schedules (98-58). FIU: 68-82, (45.3%) Last Year: Liberty 56, Eastern Michigan 20. In fact, this method is used on the In this light one can see there is no comparison between the two schedules above. 2 Michigan, No. Ahead of the announcement, here's a prediction of how the committee could rank its top 25 teams. Rice: 89-65, (57.8%) Updated by Dan on Nov 26, 2022. Washington: 76-75, (50.3%) The CFP Committee is inconsistent with their rankings, and the playoff field is too small. 78. He has covered numerous NCAA championship events, including the FCS Championship, DI Track & Field Championships and Men's Frozen Four. Baylor: 80-72, (52.6%) The following has been assumed: Michigan wins the Big Ten, Clemson wins the ACC. 27:02. Jordan Smith joined NCAA.com in January 2022. The Trojans lost their conference championship game, marking their second loss to Utah. In order to look ahead before any games are played, the win/loss method is based solely on a teams opponents win/loss record from the previous season. One easy way to choose the top 4 teams would be to create a metric that captures the overall strength of a teams wins and the weakness of their losses. 13. My model was created on a per-drive basis rather than a per-play basis, where I used the starting field position, ending field position, and the drive result (all adjusted for strength of schedule) to create offensive and defensive efficiency ratings. 14 Tulane on Jan. 2 42. Additionally, undefeated (in the regular season at least) Coastal Carolina was ranked higher than undefeated Cincinnati (although this also could have been due to inaccurate strength of schedule). Maryland: 86-66, (56.6%) Arkansas: 102-55, (65.0%) In 2021, Auburn's strength of schedule was 6th nationally. Does Ohio State get in over Southern California? In order to create my strength of record, I found the expected win-loss record of the average top 25 team based on the schedule for each team, then used the win percentage over expected to rank the teams. Comparing the twos schedules its clear that TCUs resume is better than Ohio States even if they lose to a good Kansas State team Saturday. Oklahoma State: 82-70, (53.9%) Billingsley is the only computer index to rank Arkansas schedule as the toughest. Syracuse: 85-66, (56.3%) Pre-Bowl Ranking: 2021: 34, 2020: 23, 2019: 37. 2 Michigan, No. Sun 11 Dec 2022 09.42 EST. An average top 25 team would have had just an 11% to win against Alabama, 36% against Mississippi State, 46% against Tennessee, and 51% against Auburn. 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