Editor-in-Chief Other advanced metrics do have the Vikings higher than DVOA does. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. And that's actually kind of reasonable to an extent because Stafford, for all his faults, is much better than Flacco or Brad Johnson or certainly Trent dilfer. With the seven-team playoff field in each conference, it is now possible for an entire division to make the playoffs in the same year. The crazy thing about their defense is they are in the bottom 4 teams in the NFL when it comes to average time and plays per possession. In reply to My eyes only differ with by Will Allen. DAVE is a formula which combines our preseason forecast with weighted DVOA to get a more accurate projection of how a team will play the rest of the season. Philadelphia had a slightly higher success rate on offense, 54% to 52%. Spot on. Injury luck seems to at least have some strategy/skill element to it. Allen has 5 (5!) They remind me a lot of the Manning/Dungy Colts - an outstanding pass offense that gets ahead quickly, and a defense built around defending the pass to protect those leads. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/quick-reads/2022/kenneth-walker-and-legacy-boom-or-bust-backs. They have the most runs over 20 yards of all 32 units, and are averaging five yards per carry. The technique is to keep your hands inside and grab the shoulder pads without ripping jersey or stopping momentum when they get around you. Stafford, Donald, Kupp: Bang, Marry, or Dump? Unfortunately, he was pretty bad at it - so their return game might improve now that he doesn't have the job. 49ers 2, Rams 6, Saints 10, Falcons 11, 2. A team that scores a long TD every play is the best team ever. Football Outsiders content published by ESPN. Jacksonville dropped three spots after a loss to the Houston Texans, which puts them down at No. However, that would favor divisions that had one superlative team in a year with less parity than 2022. For the most part, it's hard to tell! It would be interesting to see, by comparison, what the Bills stop of the Vikings the previous play on 4th down was worth in DVOA. The Commanders had only one drive of three plays. Fumbles after a reception are another matter completely, with the defense recovering 60% of the time (same source). The only one that was close was the Allen fumble in the end zone, it doesn't make sense to treat all of those recoveries as fluke 50-50 plays when only one of them was. It's curious how traditional stats like total yardage, and time of possession show an even game, some more advanced stats like EPA per play show either an even game or a game where the Vikings played somewhat better, all of which coincide with what actually happened in the game, but DVOA says the Bills were significantly better than the Vikings. Founder of Football Outsiders Web2022 F+ ratings combining FEI and SP+. Minnesota recovered all four fumbles in this game. The games we've lost we had 2nd half leads we couldn't protect. Big plays in q4 win tight games. Flags fly forever as they say. How much negative credit does the Bills offense get? ESPN: Best Veteran Contracts on Each Team; ESPN: Best Second-Year Players of 2022; ESPN: NFL's Deepest and Thinnest Rosters; DVOA DATABASE: Exclusive Access Historical Lookups. If there are any TCU fans still reading that haven't yet thrown their device across the room in disgust at these numbers and the obvious disrespect, I can certainly understand the perspective that these ratings and projections are meaningless in the context of producing a Big 12 champion.The Horned Frogs are undefeated (8-0 overall, 7-0 Down EPA per play on defense puts the Vikings eighth on first down. Stafford's tenure with the Lions teased of a possible higher upside while Goffs comparatively rosier surroundings warned of a dangerous downside. 2022 Team DVOA Ratings: Defense Updated 12/06/2022 01:12 PM EST Year 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 Before Seattle he did the same thing at USC, creating one of the most dominant runs in college football history. What is that, like five Os or two Us? Buffalo finished Sunday's game with 41.7% DVOA compared to -13.0% DVOA for the Vikings. When you ask how much competition did the division winner have? you look at the other three teams. With a record of 8-4 and wins in five of the last six weeks, even the advanced statistics are favoring the Dolphins. How Philadelphia Eagles Took the Fight to Tennessee Titans, Why Cincinnati Bengals Are Kansas City's Worst Nightmare, Waiver Wire Week 14: Playoff Push Pickups, The Wild World of the 2022 Minnesota Vikings, Tyler Huntley, Justin Fields, and the QB Rushing Quandary, Week 13 DVOA Preview: Chiefs Slide, Cowboys Ambush, USC Falls Hard, TCU Makes Playoff Despite Loss, Burrow-to-Chase Returns; 49ers' Purdy Predicament, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Bengals, Chiefs Lead Loaded Schedule, TCU, USC Put Playoff Bids on the Line in Championship Week, All-32: Michael Gallup Set for Big Game Against Colts, Micah Parsons' DPOY Problem; Partying with the Broncos, How Bengals Beat Titans at Their Own Game, Breaking Down the Playoff Picture, from Eagles to Texans. Week 13 DVOA Preview: Chiefs Slide, Cowboys Ambush; USC Falls Hard, TCU Makes Playoff Despite Loss; & Support Derrik Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . Flacco was far inferior. Philadelphia outgained the Commanders on a per play basis, 5.91 to 4.34. While Hurts' inconsistencies as a true dropback passer play some part in that, the depleted offensive line was the biggest issue on Sunday. Maybe I am just projecting this, but they feel more fragile than a team this strong should. Head coach Nick Sirianni and his offensive staff simply did not want to ask an offensive line with so many backups playing to hold up in pass protection, especially versus a frenzied Cardinals front seven. Recent and Trending topics from Football Outsiders. But Bisaccias units performed better overall than his predecessor DeCamillis's did. The Vikings have nothing really in common with the other teams on that table. Obviously not enough if their overall DVOA is +41.7% for the game. In reply to Bills defensive DVOA by laflamablanca87. ESPN: Best Veteran Contracts on Each Team; ESPN: Best Second-Year Players of 2022; ESPN: NFL's Deepest and Thinnest Rosters; DVOA DATABASE: Exclusive Access Historical Lookups. The Wild World of the 2022 Minnesota Vikings. Rk Team Rec FBS FEI OFEI Rk DFEI Rk NDE Rk ELS Rk GLS Rk ALS Rk 1 Georgia 14-1 13-1 1.65 1.58 3 1.93 1 2.65 1 2.23 2 5.72 2 9.78 2 2 Alabama Use promo code TANIER to save 10% on any FO+ membership and give half the cost of your membership to tip Mike Tanier. Offense All EPA/Success Rate stats are via rbsdm.com Also long gains are field position dependent. The 2 last games of 2021 which didn't mean anything were multi score games. Or, to put it another way, DVOA thinks the things that the Vikings did well and resulted in them winning this game were mostly "noise" and non-predictive of future success. In fact, their DVOA rating moved up this week.. They do get credit in overtime because that's listed as a sack. That would suggest weightings of 0, 1, 2, and 3. Jacksonville dropped three spots after a loss to the Houston Texans, which puts them down at No. We seem headed for a repeat of last year with Buffalo gagging away the much needed home field advantage. by Team; by Week But it was very close, and that's before we get into things we don't account for in DVOA like completely missed facemask penalties. But how much of that strong EPA on defense is caused by Josh Allen's aborted snap fumble on his own goal line and the Vikings recovering it for a touchdown? The Vikings plummeted from 17th to 23rd with Sunday's loss. by Team; as of a Specific Week; Single Game DVOA. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints: is clearly ranked because . In reply to Injury luck, fumble luck, by Will Allen. Micah is going to have to figure out how to beat holds and double teams just like the rest of the elite pass rushers in the NFL. 22 last week), and the No. In reply to They remind me a lot of the by takeleavebelieve. Keep up with the latest storylines, expert analysis, highlights, scores and more. From game 2 through 6, the defense was simply atrocious. 5 -- but a week ago everybody thought that the three best teams in the league were Buffalo, Philadelphia, and Kansas City, and I don't think that this weekend's results should change that at all. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. The fumble was worth -501.8% DVOA for the Bills' offense. They have 6 Q1 TDs, 7 Q2 TDs, just 3 Q3 TDs, and 10 Q4 TDs this year. Not that either team will accomplish much this year, but I find it humorous that Goff has a +17% passing DVOA compared to Stafford's -9.6% (to be fair, Goff has a very good O-line, and Stafford's is trash), and the Rams' pick they traded away to the Lions has a decent shot of being higher than the Lions' own pick. In reply to What even is a boom or bust by takeleavebelieve. Ohio State, Alabama, and Georgia are a trio of powerhouse programs that started the season way out in front of the pack, and despite chaos wreaking havoc among the masses, they're still hanging out in an exclusive tier. The Buffalo Bills clung to the top spot in DVOA entering Monday Night Football in Week 11. Funky site stuff going down. The Eagles had five different drives of just three plays, not counting their final desperation play. 22 last week), and the No. Now, there are two ways to do this. In reply to We seem headed for a repeat by theslothook. 26 defense, and the No, 11 special teams unit. In reply to It's all rendered boot now by theslothook, "It's all rendered moot now because they won the Sb". Their 24.0% defensive rushing DVOA performance against the Chicago Bears saw the Patriots give up 82 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries by Justin Fields. The Cowboys only climbed from 13th to 12th place in offensive DVOA. 14 offense, the No. Our Post-Game Win Expectancy formula says that based on the stat splits of this game, we would normally expect the Bills to have won the game 98.6% of the time. And all three of those ended in wins. They lead the NFL with a 28.6% pressure rate. But Football Outsiders DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) rankings has the Cardinals ranking only above the Houston Texans, making them the second-worst team in the league. Week 14 Staff Picks: Can Anyone in NFC Stop Eagles? If you provide infinite context, you can predict with near 100% certainty who will recover the fumble, completely removing "fumble luck". Baltimore simulation assumes that Lamar Jackson will miss Week 14. NCAA Week 12 November 23, 3:25 pm ET At 0:51 you can see Parsons in an arm bar, at 4:32 you can see another rusher in an obvious arm bar, and at 9:25 you can see Parsons yanked forward into the ground. In reply to Do the Vikings have a big by owleabf. Week 14 Staff Picks: Can Anyone in NFC Stop Eagles? In reply to They are a very weird team by Kaepernicus. Team; Week; Stat Splits by. If you want to see data from the current season on Monday, including all of Sunday's games, you will need to be an FO+ subscriber. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. In reply to But how much of that strong by Aaron Brooks G. I'd be curious how we would view Jared Goff if they had won that super bowl with him doing as little as he did on offense. 6.85 vs 6.32 -- by virtue of being at the 1, the Bills had a negative expected EPA at the snap. Exclusive Premium Content For Subscribers. In reply to "Fumble Luck is fickle" by Jblades13. by Team; by Week Take it as you will, but according to reporting from the Athletic the fumbled snap was actually caused in part by a shift from Harrison Phillips in response to their audible on the line. Because DVOA discounts fumbles and caps big plays, it discounts both plays. I expected him to be more reliable. 49ers 2, Saints 3, Falcons 8, Rams 22, 4. I can't find anyone who publishes yards to go for 3rd down stats, that would support your hypothesis. Odds & lines subject to change. in. In my opinion last year's team folds when they're down 10-27, there's something different this year. Indescribably bad. "you could define boom-or-bust as, over 50% of plays are 1 standard deviation from the mean.". Historical Lookups. 7 and moves Tampa Bay and San Francisco up. Consider that this team's dvoa is worse than the lowly disappointing Raiders. KaVontae Turpin has produced a 52-yard punt return and 63 yard kickoff return. Week 13 DVOA Preview: Chiefs Slide, Cowboys Ambush; USC Falls Hard, TCU Makes Playoff Despite Loss; & Support Derrik Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . Week 13 Staff Picks: Is Chris Olave Best Bet for OROY? That meant it took two first rounders plus a downgrade in age to trade lower downside for greater upside. The Cowboys remained in second place in defensive DVOA, with the New England Patriots and Bills switching places in first and OK, what about the Eagles? 10? I can't remember whether it was DVOA or DYAR that caps plays at 40 yards, but either way: the Vikings have 5 passes of 40+ yards (t-11th) and 2 rushes of 40+ yards (t-9th). Historical Lookups. by Team; by Week Playoff Previews (previously Game Previews). 2) Don't view it as a binary ("this is or isn't a boom-or-bust team"), but as a scale - just rank each team by their stddev and the ones with the highest are the "most" boom-or-bust and the ones with the lowest are the least boom-or-bust, or most consistent. In reply to I don't understand the idea by Noahrk. The two offensive fumbles by the Vikings never had a realistic chance of going to the bills. Like the exact specific criteria. It's very similar to LeBron/Shaq in the NBA getting less calls than they should because they do not demonstrate the proper reaction to draw the foul even though the impact/position of the offender is the same. What kind of name is that anyway? THE SHORT VERSION: DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. Team; Week; Stat Splits by. He returns in 20% of simulations by Week 15, 60% of simulations by Week 16, and all simulations by Week 17. The Dolphins will look to get back on track ahead of next weeks divisional battle against Buffalo, which also was flexed into primetime. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, Week 11 DVOA Preview: Cowboys Top the NFC, Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . Bisaccia did fairly well in Dallas. Football Outsiders content published by ESPN. Recent and Trending topics from Football Outsiders. I don't watch from behind the sofa. the ST coach is a dude. It may just be worded wrong, but giving the Vikings no credit for that fumble also makes no sense, even if it was a clean snap, (which just for the sake of argument we'll say the Vikings defensive shifts and penetration had no effect on the fumbled snap), the Vikings D line clearly got a lot of penetration, and the play would've likely been a safety anyway which would've been a good play for the Vikings and should warrant at least some credit. You only need to register (for free) and then log in to the site to view these pages. And here are the best divisions by DVOA ranks before 2002: 1. They're 25th in pass DVOA since Week 4, below such dominant aerial attacks as Chicago and Tennessee. by Team; by Week Another area of superiority seems to be whatever is allowing Cousins to take some more risks. by Team; by Week Right now, the entire AFC East makes the playoffs in 16.2% of our simulations, and at least three of the AFC East teams make it in 82.1% of simulations. (not aimed at you). It may not be appropriate to use. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, College football power ratings and analysis based on Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI), Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . We probably don't need to explain why. Football Outsiders content published by ESPN. NCAA Week 12 November 23, 3:25 pm ET With the Ravens, it's worries about the offense. The Vikings have been doing a lot of failing on early downs, then throwing for 12 yards on 3rd and 8. In reply to the Vikings have had by AFCNFCBowl. Coach Mike McDaniel on the team remains on the West Coast as they prepare for Sunday nights battle against Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers. Defensive drive efficiency (DDE) is scoring value gained or lost per opponent offensive drive. That's no doubt true in general, but I think that's not true with some particular players. At that point, almost for opposite reasons, there was uncertainty about what Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff were as quarterbacks. Chubb has the third highest DVOA in the NFL, and Hunt is sitting 12th. Stafford never had a bad healthy season after his rookie year, until this year at age 34(assuming he's healthy now), and racked up several top 10 DVOA seasons with the more frequently than not poorly coached Lions. Maybe even look like a proper HoF. 7 and moves Tampa Bay and San Francisco up. Bosa got held the entire SB against Chiefs and drew almost no calls. The off-season chatter suggesting the freshly-ringed Stafford should be a HOF candidate was absolutely stupid/overblown, but there's no doubting he was good last year. This is the 1st year Goff has looked like he can be better than his context. who knows ? 2021 Team DVOA Ratings: Overall Updated 12/06/2022 01:12 PM EST Year 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 NCAA Week 12 November 23, 3:25 pm ET The Buffalo Bills clung to the top spot in DVOA entering Monday Night Football in Week 11. Needless to say, this is the best duo in the league by a comfortable margin. Saying botched snaps are recovered 99% of the time by the offense may be true, idk if there's actually data to back that up, but most of those scenarios where there's a botched snap are not identical to the scenario in this game, where the defense is lined up and shooting directly at the center. Micah has to learn how to deal with it before he takes the next leap because the NFL is not going to let monster pass rushers destroy fantasy football leagues around the country. Football Outsiders ranks the Browns offensive line as a top-10 run blocking unit. The Miami Dolphins face the Los Angeles Chargers in a Sunday Night Football Week 14 contest. by Team; as of a Specific Week; Single Game DVOA. I would argue that it is more interesting to optimize for future fumbles, not the specifics of any single fumble. Football Outsiders ranks the Browns offensive line as a top-10 run blocking unit. The top two teams in DVOA both lost this weekend, It's wild now that the perception has flipped and analytics love Allen's offense but the tape is concerning. 1983 NFC West (7.25) In terms of DVOA, the Jaguars now have the No. So, maybe they won't? Well, check out the stat splits: That last one is particularly important because one of those fumbles was the botched center-quarterback exchange for the Bills that resulted in Minnesota's go-ahead touchdown. Everyone else can see it in replay, why can't the booth? It seems like Vikings have played their best football in the 4 quarter. Defense Fremeau Efficiency Index ratings (DFEI) represent the per-possession scoring advantage each defense would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent. 2021 Team DVOA Ratings: Overall Updated 12/06/2022 01:12 PM EST Year 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 15 special teams (down from No. For any given total DVOA, balance is rewarded and imbalance. Founder of Football Outsiders Editor-in-Chief Creator of DVOA and DYAR Worcester, MA. 2022 Team DVOA Ratings: Offense Updated 12/06/2022 01:12 PM EST Year 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 Because the subsequent fumble essentially reversed that value- at least on the scoreboard. When you ask how much competition the second place team had for second place, you look at the next two teams. In reply to Also long gains are field by ChrisS. Exclusive Premium Content For Subscribers. As of this week, we are now posting DVOA data on Monday instead of waiting until Tuesday as in the past. A model cant hate something that is undefinable. As the season rolls along, the focus will narrow in on the specifics, but for this week, many of the featured players and units are big-picture projections for the teams in question. What If Justin Herbert Isn't All That Great? The Vikings are literally going to cause heart attacks to their older fans. Yes. I think he might be on the higher end and Jared Goff might be on the lower end but they both live inhabit the same neighborhood. 26 defense, and the No, 11 special teams unit. The onus would be on you to prove the normality of the sample before proceeding to use standard deviation or z-score. 8 in the league with a team DVOA of 14.1 percent. We could look at the average of all four teams in DVOA.Or, we can look at the average of all four teams' DVOA ranks. WebMIKE TANIER has been writing Football Outsiders Almanac chapters for so long that he feels like Ringo making yet another special guest appearance during a Paul McCartney show. Football Outsiders rank Dolphins top 10 in DVOA metric through 13 weeks, Dolphins vs. Chargers preview: LAs offense hampering Justin Herbert, Injuries decimating defense. There are two fumbles. I am not sure what everyone's opinion on Goff is, but I feel more confident that he's very much in that volatile tier 3 QB mix as opposed to being in the mitch Trubisky camp of quarterbacks. South Carolina's Sensational Special Teams, ESPN: Best Veteran Contracts on Each Team, Playoff Previews (previously Game Previews). Historical Lookups. Will Georgia's Balanced Attack Win Another Championship? In reply to The facemask was a reference by Aaron Brooks G. Web2022 F+ ratings combining FEI and SP+. 2022 Team DVOA Ratings: Offense Updated 12/06/2022 01:12 PM EST Year 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 Since the Packers moved on from star wideout Davante Adams, Rodgers has failed to get on the same page as his receivers. Opponent adjustments are now at full strength. I think the harmonic mean might be more instructive in this case, which suggests that among the teams Aaron mentioned: 5. Carroll was already named one of two All-Decade Coaches for the 2010s by the Pro Football Hall of Fame, having turned around a middling Seahawks franchise into one of the top 2 or 3 most successful teams since 2010. Thatll win you 12-14 games and maybe even a SB ring. Especially with passing plays, where you will have a huge cluster of 0 yard plays, ie incompletions. 10 offense (up from No. But the Dallas Cowboys leapt into second place -- and first place in the NFC -- by hammering the Minnesota Vikings 40-3. The highest correlated factor to explaining the outcome of any particular game is points scored: it has a 100% backwards-looking explanatory power. If the mean gain is 4 yards and the standard deviation is only 1 yard, that doesn't feel like "boom or bust" at all. Down We preview the game with some assistance from Bolts from the Blue. Is there a way to see 4th quarter DVOA ? Football Outsiders ranks the Browns offensive line as a top-10 run blocking unit. Washington recovered four of the five fumbles in this game, including all three Philadelphia fumbles. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. In terms of DVOA, the Jaguars now have the No. Stuff like that occasionally happens between mid-November and January, so who knows? Will their penchant for slugging out victories continue with a tough second half schedule ahead? We could look at the average of all four teams in DVOA. WebBe the best Seattle Seahawks fan you can be with Bleacher Report. But what does it say about future games? by Team; by Week Though he finished in the top 10 running backs with over 3,800 yards from scrimmage in those three years, the Raiders declined to exercise Jacobs' fifth-year option in April.. And so Jacobs, in the midst of an All-Pro-caliber season, is about to hit the free-agent market. Nick Bosa has been getting held continuously since the second half of his rookie year. They're 25th in pass DVOA since Week 4, below such dominant aerial attacks as Chicago and Tennessee. It's like someone sprinkled in a little 2017 Case Keenum into the mix, but with less arch on the long throws. Dallas' front has produced more pressures than anyone in the NFL and has done so while primarily rushing with just four players (which you can read more about in this week's Film Room). Before Seattle he did the same thing at USC, creating one of the most dominant runs in college football history. 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